Global Warming Likely to Be More Severe Than Expected

Global Warming Likely to Be More Severe Than Expected

Global Warming Likely to Be More Severe Than Expected

Their conclusion was models with higher estimates were likely to be more accurate.

The Earth would by 2100 warm up 15 per cent higher than the worst prediction of the experts of the united nations, according to a study published Wednesday, which emphasises the need to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, in order to hope to remain below 2°C.

"There are dozens of prominent global climate models and they all project different amounts of global warming for a given change in greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily because there is not a consensus on how to best model some key aspects of the climate system", Patrick Brown, a climate scientist with the Carnegie Institution for Science, said in a news release.

Raw climate model results for a business-as-usual scenario indicate that we can expect global temperatures to increase anywhere in the range of 5.8 and 10.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.2 to 5.9 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial levels by the end of the century-a difference of about a factor of two between the most- and least-severe projections. The difference between the bottom and top of the prediction range almost equals a factor of two. Brown and his research partner Ken Caldeira wanted to see which model components were most capable of predicting climate change in the past.

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Brown and Caldeira set out to determine whether the upper or lower end of this range is more likely to prove accurate.

In the aim of narrowing this broad range, the study introduces in models of data related to satellite observation of the solar energy absorbed or returned by the Earth.

Clouds account for the major discrepancy between models on either side of the warming prediction range. Some models suggest that the cooling effect caused by clouds reflecting the Sun's energy back to space could increase in the future while other models suggest that this cooling effect might decrease. "Previous studies had put this likelihood at 62 percent".

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