Fitch prevé una recuperación de Latinoamérica en 2018

Fitch Ratings prevé una recuperación con vulnerabilidades

Fitch Ratings prevé una recuperación con vulnerabilidades

La mejora se apoyaría en el impacto favorable en la región de una recuperación de la actividad mundial, una mayor demanda interna y precios de las materias primas relativamente estables, precisó Fitch en su informe "2018, Soberanos de América Latina: un rebote cíclico en medio de la estabilización de precios de los productos básicos".

El crecimiento del PIB en América Latina se acelerará a 2,2% en 2018 desde el crecimiento de 1,1% estimado para 2017, según la agencia clasificadora de riesgos Fitch.

No obstante, el crecimiento esperado estaría muy por debajo del nivel promedio de 4,1 por ciento observado entre el 2010 y el 2013.

Entre los riesgos a la baja en un futuro, Fitch mencionó una política comercial más proteccionista de Estados Unidos o la aplicación de controles más estrictos a la inmigración.

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El periodo electoral podría afectar la confianza y provocar volatilidad en los precios de los activos, así como distraer de las reformas y pesar sobre la recuperación económica, especialmente en Brasil y México, agregó la calificadora.

En lo que respecta a los aspectos positivos, Fitch dijo que la inflación en la región se mantendrá en niveles moderados en 2018, lo cual puede dar lugar a políticas monetarias más relajadas.

Sin reformas adicionales, los países siguen siendo vulnerables a los shocks, afirmó Fitch.

Por su parte, Standard & Poor's también está cautelosa sobre las perspectivas para la región.

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