Fitch prevé una recuperación de Latinoamérica en 2018

La mejora se apoyaría en el impacto favorable en la región de una recuperación de la actividad mundial, una mayor demanda interna y precios de las materias primas relativamente estables, precisó Fitch en su informe "2018, Soberanos de América Latina: un rebote cíclico en medio de la estabilización de precios de los productos básicos".

El crecimiento del PIB en América Latina se acelerará a 2,2% en 2018 desde el crecimiento de 1,1% estimado para 2017, según la agencia clasificadora de riesgos Fitch.

No obstante, el crecimiento esperado estaría muy por debajo del nivel promedio de 4,1 por ciento observado entre el 2010 y el 2013.

Entre los riesgos a la baja en un futuro, Fitch mencionó una política comercial más proteccionista de Estados Unidos o la aplicación de controles más estrictos a la inmigración.

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El periodo electoral podría afectar la confianza y provocar volatilidad en los precios de los activos, así como distraer de las reformas y pesar sobre la recuperación económica, especialmente en Brasil y México, agregó la calificadora.

En lo que respecta a los aspectos positivos, Fitch dijo que la inflación en la región se mantendrá en niveles moderados en 2018, lo cual puede dar lugar a políticas monetarias más relajadas.

Sin reformas adicionales, los países siguen siendo vulnerables a los shocks, afirmó Fitch.

Por su parte, Standard & Poor's también está cautelosa sobre las perspectivas para la región.

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